In recent days, both the Biden administration and Russia have made impactful decisions regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. These moves come as speculation builds over Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, with Biden altering his strategies and Moscow increasing its aggressive posturing.
The U.S. has now permitted Ukraine to utilize long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory and committed to supplying anti-personnel landmines. This shift, analysts believe, was driven by the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to support Russia—an escalation Washington views as a game-changer.
Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has escalated the stakes by easing restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons. According to Russian sources, these changes signal a refusal to accept defeat, adding to the pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies. Some analysts argue this is less about operational readiness and more about intimidating the West and dissuading further intervention.
Earlier this week, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine in months, prompting fears of another wave of attacks. Western embassies temporarily shut their doors as tensions rose. Kyiv was spared the brunt of the assault, but the timing appears deliberate, coinciding with a potential shift in U.S. leadership.
Experts like Mykhaylo Samus believe Russia’s goal is to bolster its negotiating position ahead of any talks led by Trump. Moscow seems to be preparing for a diplomatic scenario where Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky faces pressure to compromise. However, skepticism remains about Putin’s willingness to make meaningful concessions, with his ultimate goal perceived as subjugating Ukraine entirely.
Ukraine recently marked 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, a grim milestone amid relentless Russian efforts to seize key eastern territories. The mood in Moscow appears confident, with many officials claiming eventual victory is inevitable. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center suggests that Putin will likely adjust his strategy if Trump assumes power, potentially adopting a more flexible approach to avoid jeopardizing a favorable deal.
Putin’s revised nuclear doctrine allows strikes against non-nuclear states allied with nuclear powers or in response to large-scale air attacks. Observers view this as another warning to Western nations. While Putin is unlikely to aim for global conflict, he intends to heighten fears among Western leaders to deter further support for Ukraine.
On the Ukrainian side, President Zelensky has maintained a firm stance. Speaking in a U.S. interview, he warned that significant cuts to military aid could jeopardize Ukraine’s defense efforts, though he vowed his nation would continue to fight regardless. His newly presented 10-point “resilience plan” underlines Ukraine’s refusal to abandon territories like Crimea or accept agreements seen as betrayals.
Ahead of possible negotiations, Ukrainian experts emphasize the need to prevent Russian advances in the east. Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies highlights the importance of tools like ATACMS and landmines in countering Russian momentum. Without such measures, Moscow could dictate unfavorable terms.
Meanwhile, skepticism persists about Trump’s capacity to broker peace. Many Ukrainians fear that any agreement leaving Ukraine in a weakened position could lead to political unrest and instability. According to Jade McGlynn from King’s College London, Europe must take a larger role in supporting Ukraine, as current contributions from the Baltics, Scandinavia, and Poland alone are insufficient.
Ultimately, the future remains uncertain. Putin’s long-term plans, potential shifts in U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s resilience will all shape the trajectory of this conflict. However, as one Ukrainian leader remarked, “Ukraine will wait out anyone in Moscow—it is here to stay.”
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